Email of the writer: dht0620@126.com
Since Tsai Ing-wen assumed leadership in China’s Taiwan on May 20, 2016, three countries, namely Sao Tome and Principe, Panama and the Dominican Republic, have severed their official ties with Taiwan and established formal diplomatic relations with the People’s Republic of China.
On Dec. 26, 2016, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi held talks with his counterpart Urbino Botelho of Sao Tome and Principe in Beijing. After their talks, the two foreign ministers signed a joint communiqué between the two countries to resume diplomatic relations. Sao Tome and Principe is an island nation in Central Africa and a former Portuguese colony. It established diplomatic relations with China immediately after gaining independence in 1975, but switched to Taiwan in 1997.
On June 13, 2017, China and the Central American nation Panama signed a joint communiqué on the establishment of diplomatic ties. The two countries agreed to develop friendly relations on the basis of mutual respect for sovereignty and territorial integrity. Panama recognizes that there is but one China in the world, that the Government of the People’s Republic of China is the sole legal government representing China, and that Taiwan is an inalienable part of China’s territory.
On May 1 this year, China and the Dominican Republic established diplomatic relations after the Caribbean country officially severed “diplomatic ties” with Taiwan. The two countries have agreed to exchange ambassadors as soon as possible and to offer assistance with the functions of diplomatic missions in each other’s capitals. The Dominican Republic now has the largest GDP in the Caribbean. Its establishment of diplomatic ties with China marks a historical chapter, brings huge development potential for the country, and will thus deliver tangible benefits to the country’s more than 10 million people.
At present, there are 19 countries that still have “diplomatic ties” with Taiwan, most of which are small countries in Africa, South America and the Caribbean. According to Taiwan media reports on May 16, it is very possible that Paraguay, Nicaragua and Saint Lucia will become the next countries to cut off their formal ties with Taiwan. Among the three countries, Paraguay’s shift may greatly influence the attitude of the rest of South America toward Taiwan.
The falling dominoes, losing allies one by one, may lead to the collapse of Taiwan’s so-called diplomacy in the world. After taking office in May 2016, Tsai and her Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) have been dodging inquiries about their position on the 1992 Consensus and using political ambiguity to “maintain the status quo” in cross-Straits ties.
The 1992 Consensus, which is regarded as the cornerstone for cross-Straits relations, is an outcome of an important meeting in 1992 between the mainland’s Association for Relations Across the Taiwan Straits and the island’s Straits Exchange Foundation. The consensus states clearly that the mainland and Taiwan are both parts of China. So, any form of “Taiwan Independence” separatist activity is against the will of the Taiwanese people. It is also against China’s fundamental interest and is firmly opposed by all Chinese people. According to a poll conducted by Taiwan newspaper United Daily News, the Taiwanese people’s satisfaction with Tsai declined from 52 percent when she took office to 29 percent recently and dissatisfaction had risen from 10 percent to 56 percent.
Moreover, it is irresistible for the “allies” of Taiwan to follow the trend of establishing formal relations with the Chinese mainland as doing so is in full accordance with their political and economic interests. Actually, the mainland has been very prudent in dealing with the resumption of diplomatic relations with the former “allies” of Taiwan. However, if the attitude of Taiwan’s leader towards the 1992 Consensus remains ambiguous or antagonistic, such an outcome is inevitable.
(The author is the editor-in-chief of the Shenzhen Daily with a Ph.D. from the Journalism and Communication School of Wuhan University.)