Japan's Prime Minister Shinzo Abe announced Aug. 28 that he was resigning both as president of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and prime minister, citing a worsening chronic illness.
Abe's resignation over health issues caught the country by surprise and sent the country's two major stock indexes tumbling in Tokyo. Japan's economy had already been in a deep recession for quite a long time and the sudden resignation of the prime minister, who has led the country’s economic recovery by his so-called theory of Abenomics, has added further uncertainties.
As a long-serving leader in Japan, Abe took office for the second time in December 2012 and hence introduced his economic theory of Abenomics, which includes an ultra-loose monetary policy, a proactive fiscal policy and a series of structural reform measures to boost the country's economy. Guided by his theory, Japan's economy was on the path of slow recovery during the past years.
By Sept. 2, three candidates have announced to join the race to bid for the president of LDP and succeed Abe as the prime minister of Japan. Since the ruling LDP holds majority seats in the lower house of the parliament, its president is assured to take over as the prime minister.
The LDP is expected to hold the vote Sept. 14. Among the three candidates including former Foreign Minister Fumio Kishida, Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga, who is also a long-time assistant of Abe, seems to be the most promising one. Suga, a 71-year-old politician, was chosen by Abe in 2012 for the pivotal role of chief Cabinet secretary, acting as top government spokesman and charged with coordinating policies.
According to Japanese media, Suga has secured wide support from the ruling LDP and has already been supported by five of the seven LDP factions. At such a crucial juncture, policy stability and continuity is a top priority in Japan and Suga is widely believed to be the most suitable successor of Abenomics. Suga also vowed to stay firmly on the policy course set out by Abe and do his utmost to continue the work of Abe, who has poured all his spirit and strength into the arduous job.
The top government spokesman laid out his priorities Sept. 2. These include pushing forward Abe's economic stimulus policy, tackling challenges stemming from an aging and declining population, and revising Japan's pacifist Constitution.
State leaders should change with the times and Abenomics is surely not a panacea to all Japanese issues. Frankly speaking, as a faithful follower of Abe, Suga can uphold most parts of Abe's theory. However, if Suga succeeds to be the next prime minister, he at least needs some new measures other than Abenomics to tackle the exceptionally different challenges, tide over present difficulties and properly handle Japan's relations with prominent countries in the world such as the United States, China and Russia.
According to the latest data, Japan's economy shrank 7.8 percent in the second quarter of 2020, an annualized drop of 27.8 percent. In addition to COVID-19, various economic and social problems brought about by the rapidly shrinking population will also act as a long-time obstacle to the economic recovery.
Moreover, Abe served as prime minister twice, during which time China-Japan relations witnessed ups and downs. Relations plunged when he visited the Yasukuni Shrine in 2013, but he later made efforts to mend and bring bilateral ties back to a normal track. Since the COVID-19 pandemic, Japan's stance has again swayed, partly because of the U.S. hardline approach to China. However, from a long-term perspective, Japan is bound to pursue greater diplomatic independence from the United States. Within the framework of the U.S.-Japan alliance, keeping a strategic balance between China and the U.S. is beneficial to Japan's interests.
(The author is the editor-in-chief of Shenzhen Daily with a Ph.D. from the Journalism and Communication School of Wuhan University.)