According to a recent report from Nikkei Asia, from April to September 2020, only 808 applicants on the Chinese mainland were granted F-1 student visas to study in American schools and universities, 99 percent fewer than the 90,410 in the same period in 2019. Other major source countries also tumbled, including an 88 percent drop from India and a 60 percent drop from Mexico. This sudden braking hit Chinese students the hardest.
With the pandemic and with Sino-U.S. relations at a historic low, will the year 2020 mark a U-turn in the trend of Chinese students' overseas study, especially in the United States? Unlikely.
Ma Zhaoxu, deputy minister of foreign affairs, told the press in April that there were still 1.42 million Chinese students overseas, 410,000 of them in the U.S. That also corroborated with the data from the U.S. Department of Homeland Security, which indicated that in 2019, Chinese citizens ranked number one among the 474,497 active SEVIS records. (The Student and Exchange Visitor Information System, SEVIS, is the Web-based system that the U.S. Department of Homeland Security uses to maintain information on the Student and Exchange Visitor Program.)
Overseas students followed closely the news about who will preside in the White House next year. Long-term investment return and potential overseas employment opportunities are prime reasons for students choosing the U.S. as their destination for a higher degree. Visa issues are secondary.
Last summer, unable to obtain visas to study in the U.S., students who were still in China but had been admitted to U.S. schools chose different paths. Some students chose to study online; some chose to defer admission. But even if programs are canceled, students are reluctant to opt out of American universities. Chen Jian, whose son is a senior student at South University of Science and Technology, had planned to support his son in attending an exchange program to Columbia University last summer, but the pandemic rendered it impossible. He said he would continue to support his son to apply for an overseas graduate program.
Parents, especially those who have a college degree, have mixed feelings about higher education in China. Overseas study is also becoming more accessible to average students in China.
This year, James Sun, who earned college and graduate degrees in Beijing, applied to the MIT Sloan Management School. He believes the academic environment and the teaching methodologies are vastly different in universities across the Pacific. On the other hand, premium education opportunities are rare in China, translating into tremendous pressure on parents who must compete for school district housing, background promotion projects, and endless tutoring classes.
"If it is possible, I also want to send my sons overseas to study, at least for their college degree," Sun, a father of three boys, told me. "If they stay in China, there are millions of students competing with each other for a handful of universities recognized internationally. They can have a wider choice if going abroad."
College teachers also share that pressure. Upon interviewing an assistant professor in Shenzhen regarding higher education quality, some glaring systemic problems were revealed. The quality of teaching has not been the top priority of university educators. She shared that if she cannot publish enough papers in five years and be qualified to move up to the next level on the academic ladder, she would have to leave. She was thinking about research and papers all the time. With four hours of teaching each week, she told me, "I don't spend too much time preparing for teaching." This disengagement would certainly push students further towards the more inclusive discussion style in Western education when considering further study.
Although Chinese universities seem to have caught up with international peers on research conducted and papers published, students still prefer STEM programs in the U.S. for their graduate and Ph.D. studies. According to the Report on Chinese Student's Overseas Study released by New Oriental, Chinese students choose STEM majors in U.S. universities because they offer longer optional practical training (36 months), more employment opportunities and higher salaries. Georgetown University also published a report in October 2020 estimating that 25 percent of U.S. STEM graduate students and 15 percent of STEM undergraduate students are Chinese.
Joe Biden's victory somewhat comforts Chinese students because, unlike Trump, the Democrat's policies are considerably more favorable for overseas students and their employment. But that will not completely wipe out some students' fear that visas might be revoked simply because they graduated from a university that supports China's "military-civil fusion strategy" program.
The pandemic and U.S. visa restrictions have complicated the situation. Students who do not want to wait to see how things will be after Biden takes office have turned toward Australia, Canada, the United Kingdom and Japan. Some students who already received offers from American universities still decided to apply to universities in other countries in case things worsen in the U.S. next year.
Overseas study has been an integral plan for most Chinese students piecing together their future. It might take one or two years for this pandemic to end and for universities to get back to normal, but Chinese families and students aiming for a lifetime investment and return are not going to be set back by this little bump.
(The author is a mid-career MPA student at Harvard Kennedy School. She briefly worked at Yunnan University of Finance and Economics as a lecturer and has almost 10 years' public policy experience focusing on international development.)